All too often, STO (Shutdown, Turnaround, Outage) managers lack access to timely, reliable data which frequently resides in multiple, standalone and unconnected systems of record. They are forced to make time-sensitive decisions based on intuition and limited information. Furthermore, STOs are not traditional projects and cannot be successfully managed using typical project management tools and techniques. They need a holistic approach suited to high-VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex & Ambiguous) environments.
The Root Cause: High VUCA
The identification of VUCA environments originated in military operations and industries. But as STOs become more and more complex, they too are typified by the definitions of VUCA environments.
As high-VUCA environments, STOs are fundamentally different to any capital or routine maintenance project. The majority exceed their KPIs because they cannot be successfully planned, managed and executed using age-old “tried and tested” project management tools and techniques. To date, there has been no holistic solution that by design addresses the root cause and unique management challenges associated with high-VUCA environments.
STO Success Factors
The success of any STO is dependent on five main factors:
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
Ambiguity
The Impact of VUCA on STO Success Factors
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
Scope
Volatility
Multiple stakeholders & found work drive change
Uncertainty
Scope only fully understood after opening & inspecting equipment
Complexity
Many tasks to complete in a very short timeframe, with competing priorities & constraints
Ambiguity
Lack of unified view & transparency limit optimization of scope
Cost
Volatility
Limited time & available data raise cost of inevitable changes
Uncertainty
With multiple unknowns & changing scope, cost uncertainty is high
Complexity
Inefficiencies associated with poor ability to manage complexity raise cost
Ambiguity
Ambiguous scope & contractor unfamiliarity result in greater contingency and higher estimates
Schedule
Volatility
Directly impacted by scope changes & limited ability to identify most effective use of resources
Uncertainty
Lack of real-time visibility & poor agility related to re-scheduling decisions
Complexity
Many interdependent tasks require harmonious operation of labor, material & equipment for successful execution
Ambiguity
Delayed/absent field data & historical analysis result in outdated &/or inaccurate schedule, & reliance on historical estimates & excessive buffers
Quality
Volatility
Quality is impacted by time and cost pressures, as well as contractor familiarity
Uncertainty
Challenges enforcing accountability & lack of transparency reduce quality